Why Is The Current US Shutdown Distinct (and Harder to Resolve)?
Shutdowns are a repeat element of US politics – but this one feels particularly intractable because of political dynamics and deep-seated animosity among the two parties.
Certain federal operations face a temporary halt, and about 750,000 employees are expected to be put on furlough without pay as Republicans and Democrats can't agree on a spending bill.
Votes aimed at ending the impasse continue to fall short, and it is hard to see a clear resolution path this time as each side – as well as the President – can see some merit in digging in.
Here are several key factors in which this shutdown distinct currently.
1. For Democrats, the focus is on Trump – not just healthcare
Democratic supporters have insisted for months for their representatives adopt stronger opposition against the Trump administration. Currently Democratic leaders has a chance to demonstrate their responsiveness.
Earlier this year, Senate leader faced strong criticism for helping pass GOP budget legislation thus preventing a government closure in the spring. Now he's digging in.
This is a chance for the Democratic party to show their ability to reclaim some control from an administration that has moved aggressively with determined action.
Opposing the GOP budget proposal comes with political risk as citizens generally may become impatient as the dispute drags on and consequences begin to mount.
The Democrats are using the budget standoff to put a spotlight on ending healthcare financial support together with Republican-approved government healthcare cuts affecting low-income populations, which are both unpopular.
Additionally, they're attempting to curtail executive utilization of presidential authority to rescind or withhold money authorized legislatively, a practice demonstrated with foreign aid and other programmes.
2. For Republicans, it's an opportunity
The President along with a senior aide have openly indicated of the fact that they smell a chance to make more of reductions in government employment that have featured the current presidential term so far.
The President himself said last week that the government closure had afforded him an "unprecedented opportunity", adding he intended to cut "opposition-supported departments".
Administration officials stated they would face the "unenviable task" involving significant workforce reductions to keep essential government services operating should the impasse persist. An administration spokesperson described this as "fiscal sanity".
The extent of possible job cuts remains unclear, though administration officials has been in discussions with federal budget authorities, the budgeting office, which is headed by the administration's budget director.
The administration's financial chief has already announced the suspension of federal funding for regions governed by of the country, including New York City and Illinois' largest city.
3. There's little trust between both parties
Whereas past government closures typically involved extended negotiations between the two parties aimed at restoring federal operations, there appears to be little of the same spirit for compromise presently.
Instead, there is rancour. The bad blood continued over the weekend, with Republicans and Democrats exchanging accusations for causing the impasse.
House Speaker a Republican, accused Democrats with insufficient commitment toward resolution, and holding out over a deal "to get political cover".
Simultaneously, the Senate leader levelled the same accusation at the other side, stating how a majority party commitment to discuss healthcare subsidies after operations resume cannot be trusted.
The President himself has escalated tensions by posting a computer-created controversial depiction of the Senate leader along with another senior opposition figure, where the legislator is depicted with a large Mexican-style sombrero and facial hair.
The affected legislator and other Democrats called this racist, a characterization rejected by the administration's second-in-command.
Fourth, The American Economy faces vulnerability
Experts project about 40% of government employees – more than 800,000 people – to be put on unpaid leave due to the government closure.
That will depress spending – with broader economic consequences, as environmental permitting, patent approvals, payments to contractors and other kinds of government activity connected to commercial interests cease functioning.
A shutdown also injects fresh instability within economic systems already being roiled from multiple factors including trade measures, previous budget reductions, immigration raids and artificial intelligence.
Analysts estimate potential reduction of approximately 0.2% from national economic expansion weekly during the closure.
But the economy typically recoups most of that lost activity after a shutdown ends, similar to recovery patterns caused by a natural disaster.
This might explain partially why the stock market have shown limited reaction by the current stand-off.
Conversely, analysts say that if the President carries out his threat of mass firings, the damage could be extended in duration.